Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Huluriasquias]

Hi, Joe.

First of all I want to say that I don't know the future.

But I wouldn't dismiss the chart so readily.

What it really shows is how highs in the Dow correspond to the "peaking" of ground-breaking technologies:

1834: ?
1906: Railroad
1929: Automobile
1966: <Big> Computers? (and maybe the 1987 mini-peak was <personal> computers)
2000: Internet (or maybe Cell phones)

Another thing that is way clear from this chart is that Every Time that we went through the excesses and turmoil proper of a new technology we followed with a <long> period of "<in>digestion".

I believe that what is totally unreasonable is to think that "this time is different" and take the slope of the trend between 1982 and now as the one to project into the future.

Surely the economy has changed, but one of those changes is that now almost everybody has stocks in their IRA's, 401K's, etc. The most efficient way to screw the largest number of people is to have the Dow reaching 3000 by, let's say, 2015.

Of course I respect your right to extrapolate "your way" but we didn't have major catastrophic events from 1906 to 1920, (oops: WW1) from 1929 to 1948, (oops: WW2) from 1966 to 1982, (oops: Vietnam) so I say we don't need any special event to slide back to the norm. (Except, perhaps, a Middle East War?)