Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[federal reserves]

Lurger> Thanks for FIG reference the gauges are rising.


Almost nobody I talk to think's inflation is in play but many commodities are in a raging bull market. The energies and
the grains, cocoa and platinum are smoking hot..and many
others sure look perky too (cotton, coffee, gold, silver, sugar) making very > convincing looking basing formations. only industrial materials (copper, lumber) and the meats are weak. Fundamentally, the weaker dollar supports the run, along
with falling inventories (crude stocks are in a free fall), at this point though most feel its a false bull being stoked by fears of the war with IRAQ, that being confirmed by new highs in the bonds at the time commodities are ripping!

I think we need to keep an eye on the bond market vs commodities along with USD to tell us the final story on inflation. If bonds reverse and start to tank along with the USD, and commodities continue to soar, you can bet the inflationary pressures are quite strong.

For now the vast majority believe inflation is dead.