Zeev...
I agree with your analysis in theory - in a weak economy with low capacity utilization and low demand, inflation should not be a problem. In spite of that, and contrary to the PPI and CPI overall trends, I keep seeing inflation in a lot of my everyday life - mostly in insurance and services which are not covered well in the government numbers. I also continue to see signs of inflation rear up in individual government reports on a regular basis, and as mentioned, the CRB index has been steadily climbing.
I have been expecting all these signs of nascent inflation to gradually disappear, but I must admit that to date they have not done so. I find this an unexpected development that bears watching, though.
mlsoft