I wasn't considering the cashless redemption when determining the breakeven point. Using that redemption method I do see how it's possible to get a cost basis below $4.
So then the decision is whether you believe they will use a cashless redemption or a $5 redemption when they make the warrants effective.
I personally will still stay on the sidelines because of my initial reasons of not liking the business model and also the inherent risk of being at the whim of casino management. My major concern is that AERCF will start to do well and the casinos take notice and either ask for a larger cut, or create their own departments and stop outsourcing to AERCF. Gamblers can be greedy and I just can't put it past them that some of the casinos won't attempt an oust in the foreseeable future. They may not, but I'm not about to risk my hard-earned money fighting the nature of the beast and since I consider this a possibility it's impossible for me to discern the future cash flow potential of AERCF.
I'm sure you will do well with this investment, it's just not for me.
-Adam
"What goes down must come up" Inverse Newton
