I have had a long study on trade cycle theory. I have become some what of a methodological naturalist when it comes to business cycles and Austrian economics.
I consider trade cycle theory to be spot on now. I disregard the need to peg currency to any material object but I also abhor monetary policy and the need to stabilize prices. I've come to a conclusion that its monetary policy that amplifies the boom and bust cycles. I consider this neither good nor bad. I would rather it not happen for the sake of every man, but I will not fight it.
Trade cycles are not well timed. There are no hurst patterns and to imply there are put those believers into the same camp as religious zealots and gold bugs who would rather believe in santa claus for the chance that they will receive a gift under a dead tree but once a year.
I have found some very good signals that lead trade cycles however how the market digests them can make trading these leading indicators painful for several months at a time.
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