Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Re: ACHN

I think another important piece of information that came out was that they have cash till the middle of next year. Based on the 10K results, they expect burn to be in the mid 20's for 2010 and cash on 2/3/2010 was ~30 M.

I think they've disclosed that before and I've posted it before so I didn't want to repeat, but it is a very important point.

Based on this I think a partnership with an upfront payment in the range of 20-30 million with milestone payments will be regarded as a success. What do you think?

I would be quite disappointed if the up-front payment is only 20-30 million. Based on Dew's table of up-front payments for HCV compounds (#msg-40127105 ), I am hoping for at least $40M up-front. I don't think that's unreasonable given that ITMN got $60M up-front and didn't even have PoC for ITMN-191 at the time. ACHN has PoC for ACH-1625, it has the potential to be a best-in-class PI, and ACHN now has a nice cash cushion to strengthen their bargaining position. I'd really like to see $60-80M up-front, but perhaps that's being too optimistic.

Assuming they start the PII in the middle of 2010 when do you think it will finish? I saw your point about testing 1625 out to 28 days and I assume this will determine the length of the trial somewhat.

ACHN indicated that the Phase 2 trial would start in 3Q2010 and I believe previously indicated that they should have results sometime in 4Q2010. That seems reasonable since the trial is just testing out to 28 days.

BTW there has been a dramatic reduction in SI.

That finally makes sense.