Short Term Trading Member Forum

[PriceTeam]

I believe TruCircle got it right when he said the cycles account for about 25 percent of market action. You simply cannot overweight them in your analysis--unless *everything* else confirms the cycles. In other words, in some markets, the cycles will *appear* more predominant or more reliable than in other markets.

In my opinion, we are currently viewing a nearly perfect repeat of what happened last July and going forward.

If you view a weekly chart and use an 8-week cycle for the 10-week, you can make a 20-week cycle low fit into mid-February. The $NYLOW chart confirms this interpretation rather dramatically if you go with a 20-week low in July and a 40-week low in early November.

I'm recording mid-February (perhaps February 12) as the 20-week low until proven otherwise.

I'm anticipating a minor dip soon, but I won't record it as the 20-week when it finally comes.

Full Disclosure: I'm no Hurst expert and track the cycles only as a peripheral exercise.

Ted