Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

Actually, due to the very poor quality io this rally, I am for now, taking off the table the target of 1526/50 for mid October, I see the next leg down going probably under 1300, and if 1263 is taken out, i se Softies like disaster. I don't have the "relentless" back in, but it could come. Rallies with minimal volume expansion and no leadership, often expire with a rush of garbage (which we had today). Such rush, IMTO, occurs because money think that the leadership is "too expensive" and is looking at "what has not moved yet". By now, MMM, COCO, INTU, PG to name a few should have hit new yearly highs, but they are topping instead of marching ahead to lead the next phase of the rally (thus the paucity of new highs on the NYSE and the Naz). Add to that excessive call buying by the masses, and the fact that too many stocks have gone above their 10 DMA (in most sectors, yesterday, the Naz 100 had 95% of its stock above the 10DMA, I'll ask as I did in mid May for the sox, can it go much higher? The same with the Sox at 88% vs only 8% on July 23rd, when I pointed again the imminence of a sox recovery), and a number of other extreme measures. The nature of the decline (if it comes) will help me determine how sever it will be.

I cannot in a post writing all the many reason that weighed in for this decision, it will take too long.

Zeev