QID - QLD TRENDS (fka )

[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #4 (Northam43-WAVES)

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 7th Trading Day: Current price is 19.98 change of +.44. The lower trend line current price is 19.84 change of -.05. 5th low of this cycle is at 19.31 change of .00. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.51. The current upper trend line price is 20.40 change of -.02. Each day the upper trend line price will fall until the trend has changed. Current price is now above the lower trend line.

QID Weekly Phase I, 2nd Trading Week: Current price is above the lower trend line price of 19.66 change of .00. The current cycle low remains at 19.31. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 14 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted two weeks was December 3, 2007. The current upper trend price is 20.96 change of +.09.

QID Monthly Phase I, 11th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 25.29 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 31.72 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 6 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 6 QID positions at 19.47, 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 7th Trading Day: Current price is 55.33. Cycle high is at 57.20 change of .00. Todays high was 56.41 change of -.73. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The upper trend line price is 55.83 change of +.13. Current price is below the upper trend line. The current cycle may have ended today and a new Phase I may start tomorrow.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 2nd Trading Week: The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 10 weeks. The current QLD Weekly cycle high is 57.20 change of .00. The upper trend line price is 57.13 change of .00. The shortest Phase II period has been 2 weeks, they occured Jan & Feb 2007. The price is currently below the upper trend line.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 8th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 12 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 8 months or less from a major top. Currently the upper trend line price is 53.96 change of .00. So QLD price will have to fall below 53.96 and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend.

I currently have two QLD positions at 57.07 and 68.50.

Conclusion: The QLD Daily closed below the upper trend line. So at this point it looks like QLD Daily will be starting a new Phase I cycle tomorrow. If that occurs it is most probable that the QLD Weekly Phase II has put in the high of the cycle at 57.20. QID Daily is approaching the upper trend line. Since I have 6 QID positions I will sell all profitable positions when it hits the upper trend line.