Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[otraque]

The wild card is the royal family be sitting upon a potential internal move to overthrow them, the youth of Saudi Arabia's population far exceed the elder population and is becoming more and more radicalized.
The whether Osama bin Laden is alive or not is of particular significance per SA as the overthrow of the SA royal family be Osama deepest desire, and one he has been believed to have been planning for over a decade, is to set off a sudden overthow move after years of planning.
But if Osama bin Laden is dead this fanatic desire of his may be put on the shelf.
He had boasted in the past that he has a plan to sabotage the oil fields, and there be many cells there awaiting his command.
Also regards this subject: The NYT had a long feature on how an estimated over 1000 Al Queda members, containing the vast majority of it's core leadership escaped Tora Bora.
The key reason were our 1,250 special forces simply were two low a number and we, for some mysterious reason made a major mistake; there were two escape routes for Al Queda, and we bombed the hell out one escape route and left the other alone, a big mistake, as Al Queda was using the route they were not bombing.(and the Pakistani army did not get there in time to block that escape route--in fact the area involved is virtually independent of pakistan)
The possibility is the U.S. command were being fed intentional false intelligence reports by afghan warlords.
The view now is they are in dispersal mode.
The primary reason that the CIA suspects Osama is still alive is the lack "of background noise". They suspect if Osama was dead, their would be "chatter", but their constant monitoring has yet to pick up any "chatter" that bin Laden is dead.
One must never underestimate the enemy, and reading the stories on the Al Queda escape from Tora Bora, they are as tough as they come, as the escape route was a fierce obstacle course for exceedingly exhausted soldiers, if the reporters digging out this story are correct.
One key story was that a chenchen unit of 100 men did not retreat and with the intention of dying so the others could escape.
And now in Pakistani villages you can see memorials to the these to the chenchens, with people laying down flowers. Max