QID - QLD TRENDS (fka )

[northam43]

QID/QLD Cycle Update Report #2 (Northam43-WAVES)

QID current cycles:

QID Daily Phase I, 5th Trading Day: Current price is 19.51. The lower trend current price is 20.00. Today made the 5th low of this cycle at 19.31. Average lows per daily cycle is 4.51. The current upper trend line price is 20.56 change of -.17. Each day the upper trend line price will fall until the trend has changed.

QID Weekly Phase I, 1st Trading Week: Current price is below the lower trend line price of 19.73. The current cycle low is 19.31. The average QID weekly Phase I cycle lasts 15 weeks. The last time Phase I lasted only one week was December 24, 2007. The current upper trend price is 21.10 change of .00.

QID Monthly Phase I, 11th Trading Month: The current price is below the lower trend line price of 25.29. The upper trend line price is 31.72 change of .00. The average QID Monthly Phase I cycle lasts 9 months. The longest was 17 months from August 2006 to December 2007. So we could be 6 months or less from a QID long term bottom.

I currently have 6 QID positions at 19.47, 28.57, 31.90, 32.92, 34.12, and 35.75.

QLD current cycles:

QLD Daily Phase II, 5th Trading Day: New cycle high was made today at 57.20. The average QLD Daily Phase II lasts 7 trading days. The upper trend line price is 55.42 change of +.36. So the price would currently have to fall below 55.42 to end the current Phase II cycle. Since QLD Weekly is now in Phase II, I will hold my QLD 57.07 position for now.

QLD Weekly Phase II, 1st Trading Week: Phase II confirmed today. The average QLD Weekly Phase II lasts 11 weeks. The QLD Weekly high today is 57.20. The upper trend line price is 57.13 change of +.05. The shortest Phase II period has been 2 weeks, they occured Jan & Feb 2007.

QLD Monthly Phase II, 8th Trading Month: The average QLD Monthly Phase II lasts 12 months. The longest has been 16 months. So we could be 8 months or less from a long term trend change. Currently the upper trend line price is 53.96 change of +.05. So QLD price would have to fall below that level and remain below that level for an entire month to start a new long term bear trend.

I currently have two QLD positions at 57.07 and 68.50.

Conclusion: With QLD Weekly Phase II confirmed this week. QLD should more than likely continue upward. That would mean QID will probably continue lower.