Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[chainik]

<just a retrench and not too severe either>

Z, most of the sentiment indicators that I follow are at extreme levels, suggesting wild speculation by small traders. At the same time, commercials built a significant (about $40 B) net short position on S&P (full contracts + e-minis) - and they did it pretty fast, within the last three weeks. IMO all this strongly favors a severe decline right now (within days) lasting at least till the middle of Dec.

I don't know what will be the pretext for the decline (intel, jobs, oil, USD?) but they'll find one (g)