Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[LG]

ajtj99: Come on AJ, I italicized what I found humorous and that was the assertion by someone else, that a study of 11 COMPX rising wedges going back to 1991 determined that COMPX rising wedges last for 18 to 23 days, etc.

Time will tell if the COMPX bubble decline continues down and continues to be influenced along its bubble ascent pivots and consolidations. While I’ve been keenly aware of this influencing phenomena (illustrating these correlations for years on SI, heck one idiot in particular made fun of my red and green lines illustrating this correlation and areas to watch) for more than just a bubble retrace. As chartists and or technicians our methods are to use history as our guide and often as an influencing map, that’s what we do. However, I “never” use a single method in isolation. After hundreds of hours of back testing and optimization of every known indicator back in the 80’s, I discovered “all” indicators fail and fail regularly when used in absolutes.

While certain techniques seem to work for a while under certain conditions, they all eventually go through a period of failure, some more often than others. IMO, it is extremely important to narrow down one’s indicators to a reliable few that can be used as a group and not in absolutes. While this method is not fail proof, it reduces your failure rate dramatically.

For those times when the system fails, you go to Plan B or act when your stop loss point is tagged.

Regards,
LG