Zeev, An EXCELLENT analysis....Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
As petty as it sounds, I can't help but think that Bush's desire to conduct an offensive strike against Iraq is mainly about taking care of his father's unfinished business.
It is unfortunate that the current Bush has committed so much political capital to such an offensive. The Iraq offensive seems to be his top priority. Yet there is little support at home or abroad.
IMO, because Bush has committed so much political capital to an Iraq offensive, politically, he's left himself with no choice but to engage in this unpopular initiative. If Bush waffles on the planned offensive, the US will appear weak, and his leadership and presidency, weaker. It really is an unfortunate situation.
I also fear such an attack would rile the extremists to levels we have not seen or anticipated. Trying times we're living in...
Best Regards,
Sarai :)