Zeev, how do the (individual) states debt problems play into the big picture? Just read a letter to editor from someone in Wisconsin state administration, and she says (which is consistent with what I thought) state debt levels have risen dramatically the last few years, and that there will be price to pay in slower growth down the road (project not getting funded to pay down debt)..Apparently the transportation budget (for a lot of states) is one that's raided to pay other bills/debt service (the fallacy of 'balanced' state budgets).
So big Fed budget deficit + big State budget deficit + very little consumer savings
Don't we need a deep recession to clean the excesses up? (the longer we wait, the worse the next recession?)
Also, you have any concern about all the variable rate debt out there (especially home owner) given we will almost have to see higher rates in 2005?