OT to GFP: Right now my 'short' plays are VXX and BGZ, but I only plan to hold them a relatively short time. When I sense that the current correction wave is losing steam I'll sell both and buy two gold miner ETF's (GDX and GDXJ) becasue I think gold might get oversold and will be due for a one month rally. If the S&P also has a relief rally I might short BGU and TNA at the end of it. I would short the triple leveraged 'bull' fund rather than just buy the triple leveraged 'bear' fund in order to have the problem of 'time decay' work in my favor. You see, I think we'll have long and protracted bear market, with periods of flat, uneventful trading and brief, mild rallies and brief, deeper drops. It will be slow enough and confusing enough that many average investors will ride it all the way down until they simply can't take the pain any longer. The bottom will be when the dividend yield on the S&P rises to the 6% area. That has always been the ultimate bottom in any secular bear market. I think it means a drop to the 400 level on the S&P, or close to it. A short of BGU and TNA are almost a sure bet, if there is ever such a thing in the markets. You'd make good money during down phases, you'd make a little money in flat markets due to 'time decay' and you'd lose during the brief relief rallies. But the overall direction of the markets will be down and you could short both and sleep easily knowing the trend is your friend. I plan to do this with about 1/3 - 1/2 of my portfolio. The other 2/3-1/2 will be held in TLT and perhaps EDV (Vanguard's Zero Coupon Long bond fund). Such a portfolio could average a 15-25% return (per year) over the upcoming two year bear market. After which we should be in line for a very strong rally, especially with regard to commodity, energy and precious metal inflation plays.
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