OT Food4: No two bear markets are exactly alike. In 2008-2009 we got a pretty steep drop until March 2009, then a pretty steep rebound. I expect this bear market drop to be more sustained, with several small relief rallies to keep investors guessing. The bottom is going to be deep however. I plan to hold onto my short positions for perhaps another month. The S&P and gold need to both drop under $1000 to really induce average investors to bail out and to force leveraged investors like hedge funds to sell assets. Then we'll get an oversold period where we might see a 20% rebound in equities and a 30-50% rally in gold and commodity plays. I plan to ride my short for perhaps another month. If the VIX rises to 40 or above and gold has dropped under $1000 I'll probably pick up 10K shares of GDX and 10K shares of GDXJ. We could get a nice rally in both, perhaps 25-50%. The high for GDX was $55.26 I think. If we can buy it between $38 and $40 it could rally to retest it's previos high. If it fails to achieve its previous high I'll sell as soon as I sense weakness. It would be strictly a short term play, perhaps a month. But I don't want to be on the opposite side of the major trend for too long. And make no mistake, the overall r=trend is going down, way down. This will be the worst bear market in our lifetimes, unless we're over 81 years old. We'd have bread lines, soup lines and Hoovervilles already if it wasn't for all the safety net spending on unemployment benefits and welfare. We'll certainly see 15% official unemployment, and 25-30% underemployment or simply people giving up. Foreclosures will certainly rise. Real estate prices have another 25-40% to fall as interest rates rise. Regardless of your political affiliation Obama is toast. These is going to be a big backlash against many entrenched Washington pols this November and it will be even worse for them in 2012. Half of Congress will probably turn over in the next 2 election cycles. The have-nots are pissed they didn't get what they were promised. The few remaining taxpayers in this country are pissed because they're getting screwed every which way. The rich are buying gold and looking for places to hide overseas. It's getting ugly out there and it will get worse before it gets better.
Oh, by the way, its 11 PM and Korean equities are doen 3%, Hang Seng is down > 3% and Taiwan equities are down 4%. Look out below.........
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