Your Economy (No Politics)

[Bullwinkle]

>>>CYCLE/TREND Update for the Week Ahead>>>

Overview:
What an interesting week... On a day or two everything was up; Indices, Gold, Oil, Bonds, even the dollar had stabilized. Not everyone can be right about future prospects. QQQ MaxPain was not even close to being taken out, I guess there were just too many Puts holders to fry to bother making an attempt at the Calls or could it be that the forward momentum could not be turned around in time before expiry? Once the train gets a rolling it is difficult to stop, plainly speaking,the current momentum may have carried us passed the point of return. Either way it is now in the books. The US dollar is now the topic du jour, leaving the price of oil as an after thought although not to be forgotten oil made itself noticed on the last day of trade. And then there was Uncle Al...

Economic #'s:
If these #'s were grades, we would be flunking out of school. These are not of which party hats and streamers are made for. The NY Empire State Index fell slightly (D), but PPI/CPI and the Core issues were twice as high as expected (F). Then Building Permits and Housing Starts were up a bit (C), Industrial Production and Capaity Utilization up a touch (C), Initial Claims also up by 1K to 334K (C), LEI fell for the 5th consecutive month (F) and Philly Fed took a nosedive (F). That equals a 1.43 GPA for the week, not too pretty. Then if we include the 1 million barrel shortfall of distillate fuel in the petroleum reserve numbers, well let's just say we flunked this weeks course in Econ #'s in a big way.

As for next week, it will be a relatively quiet one with only Durable Goods, Existing and New Home Sales, Initial Claims and Michigan Sentiment. Also trading will be closed on Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving Day.

Can you say Reality Check? Big AL can... No Fedspeak gibberish this time, very clear and concise in his statements which seemed to get everyones (or at least most everyones) attention. The ones who need to heed these words most are the US Government and those who do not seem to remember what happened the last time Big AL spoke so clearly. Ahhh, I remember it well. It was late 1999 and went something like this; "I will continue to raise rates until the exuberance comes out of the markets". Not many believed him then and most likely not many believe him now. All I can say is unless you want to be a bag holder, you have been warned. As the old cliche' goes, "You cannot fight the Fed".

What can we expect now?:
Not much has changed indicator wise since the last update, so I really do not have much to add. TA & FA are of no real value lately and we are still in well overbought territory. We are ripe and overdue for a pullback. The real question is what will be the severity and duration of such a pullback? Maybe just be a slight consolidation phase before heading to new highs or has sentiment changed? We will know soon enough... All I do know is that if sentiment has changed a vicious selloff could ensue...

NOTE: I continue to hold a USPIX position and will continue to exercise patience. Afterall the $NDX has already risen some 150pts from my entry and we are much closer to a top than a bottom. As for PM's, I will continue to purchase 1 oz. rounds of Gold and Silver when feasible. For some reason this seems more gratifying and is very liquid not to mention they are real pretty to look at! >8^)

Disclaimer: This disclosure is not a recommendation to buy or sell or to do as I do. It is to let people know what I am doing and give my thoughts on current market conditions. I am not a day trader, I only attempt to identify up/down trends and play the swings.