Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

This is how I handicap the Lovenox ANDA’s from MNTA/NVS,
Teva, and Amphastar. The table below lists the various outcomes
in descending order of desirability for MNTA shareholders.

 
                                      PROBABILITY THAT   
                                 INDICATED RESULT PERTAINS  
                                    AS OF INDICATED DATE   
                                    6/30/10     12/31/10  
 MNTA approved; other applicants 
 rejected or no action                34%         62%  
  
 Other applicants rejected; 
 MNTA application pending 
 (with or w/o new FDA requests)        6%          2% 
  
 Multiple applicants approved 
 including MNTA                       12%         22%  
  
 No final decision for any applicant 
 (with or w/o new FDA requests)       46%          8%  
  
 All applicants rejected               2%          6% 
  
 MNTA rejected; other  
 applicant(s) approved                 *           *  
  
 All cases not included above          *           *  
                                     ====        ====  
                                     100%        100%  
 *Less than 0.5% 

JMHO, FWIW