Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[fabian]

Jim, You have probably seen MustbePatient's comments regarding GFRE.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=45924980
They are quite interesting and plausible.
[thanks MBP for sharing them]
Without bad news, it's unlikely GFRE will make the 200 day m/a at least in the short term.
That would put it at 5 X likely 2010 engs. and despite the potential for irrationality to get out of control, we do not think it's likely. It's too "soon" for that to happen after just making a high of $14.75.
Later after a bounce, bad market environment?...well, if the market got irrational enough to price it at 1 X earnings 13 mo ago, it would not prudent to say there is no way it could price it at 5 X earnings.
Pretty much same players and they have not gotten a whole lot more rational when the heat's put on.
What we think may happen is that after this crunch, it will soon be February and traders will start thinking about the earnings report which will come out in March. All signs point to that being a good one and and with the first quarter underway and China still growing fast, we'd expect a good report for the March quarter which will probably come out in May.
It seems likely there will be some positioning ahead of the March report. [for 4th quarter 2009] which would make the stock gain some traction going into it...that is, if the stock is still down a month from now. [not a given it will be]
Any slowdown caused by tightening would come after the March quarter. Possibly long after, if at all.
Short term we think the stocks holds it's .382 retrace of the entire move up from $.88 which is about $9.40.
It touched it's 20 week moving average before the close and recovered.
In sum: We think the stock has about finished it's decline and swing traders or investors should do well from today's closing price.
Swing traders will know soon enough.
Investors? We'll know in a year or three how good today's price is/was.
Sooner if the company really screws up but that is not the house bet.