CPC 60 Day SMA versus the SOX - Frankly a longer term moving average is necessary to clearly show a trend when you are talking what is truly low or not. That said even a 5 day sma shows basically the same thing but it is just too busy.
Bottom line is that the CPC was no where near where it was at the top in 2000. In addition it has been lower at many times prior to an actual market top.
Bottom line for me is that there is nothing yet showing up in the market volume to indicate the market has made a real top. I own 10,000 share of Citigroup and I can tell you, even I think, the downgrade of semi-equip stocks was pure BS.