Motorcar Parts of America Inc. (MPAA)

[littlefish]

LOL. Agreed.
The confindence is where the excitement comes from.

I was really debating on being real quiet or not to make it a real big position but figure heck with it I'll just post my enthusiasm since it keeps creeping up.
Almost entered PSL going all A names for it but couldn't come up with real solid "A" names for 3 pix outside cAsh MPAA and AYSI (was toying with Amlj, Asrg, Aey, but locking in mpAA and Aysi with cAsh).
I'm too much of a wuss to get in and bringing it up now is lame. But I do wish they would allow double downs out of the gate so when I do feel something that is convincing I would find it worthwhile enough to put some energy into a contest like that.

I don't want to bet the farm on a company that has many institutional holders. At the same time, when my confidence is there I am not bashful. With the darn price continuing higher I am coming to grips with just going ahead and spewing the enthusiasm and not sweating getting more shares on the cheap. If I can great, if not oh well got enough to cheerlead.

This one doesn't want to back down much and IMO after the Feb #s may not see $5.5 for the rest of the year. Historically speaking IMO it is extremely cheap.
Who knows of course, nothing is certain but it feels like a real good bet to me.
This Q I am guessing about 20-25 cents EPS and very possibly creeping higher thru 2010. They'll have most/all of that debt gone by fiscal year end. That'll put a few cents more into juicing earnings going forward.

They are able to produce product more efficiently going forward so margin expansion there for a long time to come IMO.
If they can accumulate more biz, they should see further margin expansion. Lots of capacity. Secure market position and finite competition with high barriers for anybody new to creep in. Easy to understand biz with just 2 basic products- starters and alternators. Customers are doing well and very well established in their markets.

Ya my wife for the last week+ around the house has been looking at me with the 'I hope you are right' look cuz I keep telling her 'hey I know this one is going to work' and have been nibbling more even as it goes higher.
Of course having it creep higher right now means nothing. It'll be the Q reports that determine that part of being correct or not.

So far haven't been wrong when I say that to her so she is excited too. Of course the little one likes the "MPAA Yay" stuff too. Maybe I am feeding off their enthusiasm too creating a positive feedback loop. May need a reality check LOL. Of course they know nothing about the company but it is fun to get the whole family excited about things.

One of these days I will fire a blank but this one looks easy to me. Then again they always do at the start I guess, otherwise why throw money at them?...

The one slight negative is the guidance for $145+ mill revs in the conference they gave. I am hoping for more like $147+ mill the last 2 Qs this fiscal year. There is a little seasonality that might dampen the upcoming Q but not a lot and I still think thye can do $36+ mill conservatively but think it may be more. The future beyond the next couple Qs looks quite bright too.

PS- no one is talking about it either and few board marks so far so another positive IMO.