Monday, January 18, 2010 2:20:27 PM
I'm a person that believes in the broadest most inescapable truths wamuvoodoo. If you do take the time to read this, and think about it, you'll see I'm not saying the commons are worthless. They do have the potential you guys are on about in theory. You guys tend to dwell on that potential and not look at the odds. That potential only gets realized if the right things happen or can be made to happen in time. My post also identifies things we can do to help.
I was on the phone buying common shares on the day they closed the bank. I moved what was left of my money into preferred shares and covered my losses. But a big client of mine failed to perform on a contract January first 2009, and due to the major loss of income I was not able to pursue a buy and hold strategy with my PQs. I've had to become an active trader and loot my accounts every month to make ends meet. So I'm a little guy now with a few Ks and a very few Hs. I minimize my risk this way.
I don't hold out much hope for common shares. They are now a very high risk issue.
If I were the equity committee I would look into the following.
JPM closed a stand alone brokerage that operated inside it's bank late in 2008. They moved it's personel to other places at the bank or let them go. This was a crew of brokers who had a chinese wall between themselves and the bank. I would want to look into what they did. Because it's certain that they all drank in the same bars. We should look into whether it was a wrecking crew.
JPM has very successfully controled all the spin on this event. I would want to look into the PR communications throughout all of 2008. PR involves lobbying publishers, editors, and individual writers to a particular point of view. This manipulates public opinion. This influences stock prices. This is the rock I would look under to find leaks and or malicious strategies and practices. They've got their rock star banker named banker of the year and put his name up for TSec. You have a sure thing they've been spending money grooming this guy for years. And some of what they have done could probably be shown to be damaging to Wamu's reputation long before the bank ran into real trouble.
JPM has another bully pulpit. The tellers and bank workers in our communities. They don't seem to have anything to say about their personal losses if they had any money in the stock of the old company. Most of the faces seem the same around town for me. But a very few are missing. Could the be the people who experienced personal losses when they closed the old bank?
Minimizing your risk is a simple matter of moving forward in line, and watching your stocks constantly. In one of the last "largest bankruptcies in history" the litigation dragged on 2 or 3 years and the preferred stocks all got paid, but the commons only recovered a fraction of a cent. That's the way it works. Each class recovers in full before the next class gets a drink. In the trust preferred they are trading at 60% of a book value assigned by the indenture trustee Wells Fargo. Look for Wells Fargo lawyers representing this issue. The Ps and Ks are trading at about a tenth of their book. They hit pop flies all the time. But the possibility exists that the WMI lawyers could sever equity and cut off the Ps and Ks and the commons and go on to build a new business with the money we all lost in the stock market. We've got to watch out for court rulings that appear to limit our sway.
Preferred shares recover a set value IF the company liquidates. It's fixed. They are capped. All sense of their value stems from this. Or that they pay and will continue to pay dividends when the company is healthy. It can't be more, and it could very well be less. Anything left over goes to common without any limits on how high it could go. The only limiting factor is how much is left over.
I'll say it again now. The holding company and investment company have many causes of action against many people. This is a very lucrative situation for the lawyers. They could try for a reorganization that severs equity and keeps them employed for decades. Equity doesn't matter to them much. We're all a bunch of hedge funds and speculators and buletinboard freaks to them. They are pushing for a resolution of the bankruptcy that allows them to pursue the long term litigations with as few mouths to feed as possible. The stronger they look, the better chance they have of being taken seriously in a settlement negotiation and the better they fair in a settlement for each action.
There's a political element here. Since people are actually trying to make heroes out of the rock stars and beurocrats, there's a thought we should all be swept under the rug and branded as speculators, hedge funds, and buletin board freaks.
Reading something like this document I've posted below will help you understand who you are, what your rights are, and how the other guy sees you. Speak up for your self and your rights whenever you read an article that tries to make you look bad. Write a letter to the editor or the writer, or your congressman or the president. Take a journalist to lunch. Use your own citizens voice to Work the political side of this issue.
http://www.uscourts.gov/rules/BK%20Suggestions%202008/08-BK-M-Suggestion-Gerber.pdf
I was on the phone buying common shares on the day they closed the bank. I moved what was left of my money into preferred shares and covered my losses. But a big client of mine failed to perform on a contract January first 2009, and due to the major loss of income I was not able to pursue a buy and hold strategy with my PQs. I've had to become an active trader and loot my accounts every month to make ends meet. So I'm a little guy now with a few Ks and a very few Hs. I minimize my risk this way.
I don't hold out much hope for common shares. They are now a very high risk issue.
If I were the equity committee I would look into the following.
JPM closed a stand alone brokerage that operated inside it's bank late in 2008. They moved it's personel to other places at the bank or let them go. This was a crew of brokers who had a chinese wall between themselves and the bank. I would want to look into what they did. Because it's certain that they all drank in the same bars. We should look into whether it was a wrecking crew.
JPM has very successfully controled all the spin on this event. I would want to look into the PR communications throughout all of 2008. PR involves lobbying publishers, editors, and individual writers to a particular point of view. This manipulates public opinion. This influences stock prices. This is the rock I would look under to find leaks and or malicious strategies and practices. They've got their rock star banker named banker of the year and put his name up for TSec. You have a sure thing they've been spending money grooming this guy for years. And some of what they have done could probably be shown to be damaging to Wamu's reputation long before the bank ran into real trouble.
JPM has another bully pulpit. The tellers and bank workers in our communities. They don't seem to have anything to say about their personal losses if they had any money in the stock of the old company. Most of the faces seem the same around town for me. But a very few are missing. Could the be the people who experienced personal losses when they closed the old bank?
Minimizing your risk is a simple matter of moving forward in line, and watching your stocks constantly. In one of the last "largest bankruptcies in history" the litigation dragged on 2 or 3 years and the preferred stocks all got paid, but the commons only recovered a fraction of a cent. That's the way it works. Each class recovers in full before the next class gets a drink. In the trust preferred they are trading at 60% of a book value assigned by the indenture trustee Wells Fargo. Look for Wells Fargo lawyers representing this issue. The Ps and Ks are trading at about a tenth of their book. They hit pop flies all the time. But the possibility exists that the WMI lawyers could sever equity and cut off the Ps and Ks and the commons and go on to build a new business with the money we all lost in the stock market. We've got to watch out for court rulings that appear to limit our sway.
Preferred shares recover a set value IF the company liquidates. It's fixed. They are capped. All sense of their value stems from this. Or that they pay and will continue to pay dividends when the company is healthy. It can't be more, and it could very well be less. Anything left over goes to common without any limits on how high it could go. The only limiting factor is how much is left over.
I'll say it again now. The holding company and investment company have many causes of action against many people. This is a very lucrative situation for the lawyers. They could try for a reorganization that severs equity and keeps them employed for decades. Equity doesn't matter to them much. We're all a bunch of hedge funds and speculators and buletinboard freaks to them. They are pushing for a resolution of the bankruptcy that allows them to pursue the long term litigations with as few mouths to feed as possible. The stronger they look, the better chance they have of being taken seriously in a settlement negotiation and the better they fair in a settlement for each action.
There's a political element here. Since people are actually trying to make heroes out of the rock stars and beurocrats, there's a thought we should all be swept under the rug and branded as speculators, hedge funds, and buletin board freaks.
Reading something like this document I've posted below will help you understand who you are, what your rights are, and how the other guy sees you. Speak up for your self and your rights whenever you read an article that tries to make you look bad. Write a letter to the editor or the writer, or your congressman or the president. Take a journalist to lunch. Use your own citizens voice to Work the political side of this issue.
http://www.uscourts.gov/rules/BK%20Suggestions%202008/08-BK-M-Suggestion-Gerber.pdf
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