Zeev's Turnips Talk Politics (ZTTP)

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the comparisons don't hold water. see my last post.

bottom line for the insurgents: with no base of operations, no consistent source of support or supplies, a lack of popular support among the people, and the most sophisticated army in the history of humanity willing to spend several more years there to finish you off... it doesn't look good for them. They will do a LOT more damage, because they want martyrdom, but in terms of the long-term picture for them of somehow winning and turning Iraq back to its Baathist glory days, it's bleak.

the real story in Iraq is not just the insurgency, but what's going on in terms of the growth of the Iraqi army and police forces, the formation of political parties, the election in January, the reparation of schools and medical facilities, freedom of speech, liberation of women, the formation of a true economy... the insurgents are up against these developments every bit as much as they're up against the US army. Iraq will not be perfect for a long, long time but it will be on the right path in many ways, despite the carbombs by extremists who don't represent the rank-and-file.

You can't just say "oh, there was guerilla warfare in Vietnam, and we lost, there is guerilla warfare here, therefore, we will lose this war."