Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[DlphcOracl]

Long, slow rally into late October? IMO, unlikely.

The J6P set of investors have a very short memory and have forgotten the events that have led to the stock market freefall over the past month. They are:

1. no signs of a significant economic recovery to support a richly valued (still) stock market.

2. no new job creation.

3. persistent unwillingness of businesses to commit new capital to hiring or their businesses. Capex spending estimates continue to decline.

4. increasing probability that the consumer will increase saving and cut back spending. This is beginning to show up in disappointing earnings reports from retailers.

I think any rally will be restricted to August or, at best, early September. Once we head into September, I believe we will once again experience a significant new set of earnings warnings which will cast further doubt of any sort of meaningful economic recovery and stall any rally.

One final point: historically, bear market rallies (which I believe this is) rarely last more than 8 weeks. If this year holds to form, rallies will continue to be shorter and shallower.