Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: IDIX valuation and near-term news flow

…any thoughts on the ~10% jump today? A continuation of the rebound from 2009 tax selling, or perhaps some news expected at the JPM conference next week?

Perhaps a combination of both. There are several things IDIX might announce when it presents at the JPM conference next week:

• A partnership for IDX184. (This is the biggie, of course.)

• Start of phase-1 trial for IDX375 (the HCV non-nuke).

• IND/CTA submission for IDX316 (the HCV PI).

• Details about the HCV NS5A program, which is in preclinical development.

IDIX might also say something at JPM about IDX899, the HIV drug licensed to GSK. I recently posted that GSK is running a PK/food trial using GSK’s proprietary formulations (#msg-44790049), but IDIX has not yet commented on this development.

Having scooped up a boatload of shares below $2 (#msg-43797730, #msg-43392969), I’ll be enjoying the ride if there is one. I don’t take TA seriously; however, wallstarb’s 3.20 trading target is quite attainable, IMO. With 71M diluted shares for valuation purposes (#msg-40353178) and an estimated $50M net cash as of today (#msg-43361797), IDIX’s enterprise value at today’s closing price is only 2.33x71-50 = $115M. This strikes me as ridiculously cheap when you consider that IDIX is a bona fide drug-discovery company whose HCV portfolio includes all of the major antiviral drug classes.

In other words, it would not take much in the way of news to spur a substantially higher valuation, IMO.