Thursday, December 24, 2009 9:13:10 PM
Posted many fortnights ago, the Chinese are very intelligent and "like to hold their cards close to their chest". So a 180 from a positive video, in my opinion, for the purpose of sending a negative message. Remember, the Chinese do not like to show their hand.
Let's take a look at the Sinopec catch 22.
1. If things were really in bad drilling shape for Sinopec's JDZ blocks , seems like financially it would be to their interest to not disclose that because it immediately deflates the value of their asset...all their investment would be down the drain by driving off any outside interest in acquiring any or part of the asset.
2. if they kept a neutral stance on their drilling in the JDZ , then no one would know what to think about investing in the EEZ.
3. but Peter went overboard with his optimistic video and since Sinopec is in charge of the release of data, ironic that Peter would, deer in headlights, come back with a 180 degrees rebuttal of what he previously said.
4. So Peter spoke too much and created a mess for Sinopec to dig themselves out of...there was really no good repair of the flip-flop. So they just refuted it 180 degrees which is very, very unlike the comfort zone for Sinopec to do...BUT what is an oil company to do?
5. Bottom line, good logic, the impropriety and unlikelihood oil drilling results could go from "bright" to "dismal" through the daily review of drilling results in different blocks is not unlikely but impossible.
What does this mean for we investors, great,great information. They may as well just came out and told us we are in great shape. It has often been said, "people don't vote with their mouth but vote with they feet". I think the reversal on the brink of EEZ bidding by Sinopec is WONDERFUL news. Remember, Sinopec tries to keep info close to the chest...what Peter did was not close to the chest.
Let's take a look at the Sinopec catch 22.
1. If things were really in bad drilling shape for Sinopec's JDZ blocks , seems like financially it would be to their interest to not disclose that because it immediately deflates the value of their asset...all their investment would be down the drain by driving off any outside interest in acquiring any or part of the asset.
2. if they kept a neutral stance on their drilling in the JDZ , then no one would know what to think about investing in the EEZ.
3. but Peter went overboard with his optimistic video and since Sinopec is in charge of the release of data, ironic that Peter would, deer in headlights, come back with a 180 degrees rebuttal of what he previously said.
4. So Peter spoke too much and created a mess for Sinopec to dig themselves out of...there was really no good repair of the flip-flop. So they just refuted it 180 degrees which is very, very unlike the comfort zone for Sinopec to do...BUT what is an oil company to do?
5. Bottom line, good logic, the impropriety and unlikelihood oil drilling results could go from "bright" to "dismal" through the daily review of drilling results in different blocks is not unlikely but impossible.
What does this mean for we investors, great,great information. They may as well just came out and told us we are in great shape. It has often been said, "people don't vote with their mouth but vote with they feet". I think the reversal on the brink of EEZ bidding by Sinopec is WONDERFUL news. Remember, Sinopec tries to keep info close to the chest...what Peter did was not close to the chest.
