Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[ajtj99]

Just curious, Zeev, what will cause you to re-consider a rally to the 1500 level?

Another question - do you agree that all bubbles re-trace in a bell curve?

Simple examples:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=JDSU&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CSCO&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ORCL&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=INTC&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5Eixic&d=c&k=c1&t=my&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&...

I chose these simple charts as they seem to illustrate the point easily.

If you agree we had a bubble in the Nasdaq, then it should follow that the deflation follows historic bubble examples.

1966-1982 was not a classic bubble. The bell curve on the internet bubble is flattening out, but there is still downside to deal with yet.

I see us dropping after expiration to COMP 1000 by early September, ramping to COMP 1250 for September expiration, and dropping back to 1000 again into the end of the year. I think the eventual bottom will be at 700-800 COMP in late Spring next year.

I don't believe we will see any rallies greater than 250-points on the COMP, and we will not surpass 1459 COMP until 2004.

That's based upon some indicators I watch as well as historic bubble examples.

BTW, there is a pretty decent channel line at COMP 1300 that should reign in any action off this 10-hour ramp.

I know the turnips reserve the right to be wrong and change their mind, but can they change the era on which they base their projections?

If you had to write a position paper defending the 1966-1982 era versus the 1926-1932 bubble as the proper reference for this market, I think it would be extremely difficult to get enough evidence to support this mirroring the 1966-1982 market better than the 1926-1932 bubble.

Just attempting to appeal to your professorial side here, Zeev.