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Friday, December 18, 2009 1:44:25 AM
EU Extended Wave 5 Completion (I Hope!) 
Ok Git, here we go. I've studied my little brains out tonight and now my head hurts. I've been trying to figure out how we missed predicting where this thing would ultimately wind up.
We got an extended Wave 5. That much I know now but I needed to find out how we could have known that.
The answer was in the Elliott Wave book I just got in. If Waves 1 and 3 are almost equal in length, then watch out...you're setting up for a possible Wave 5 extension.
On EU's 4 hour chart, the consolidation triangle is evident at the top, which was the end of the big Wave 5 we'd been watching. After consolidation in a contracting Elliott triangle made up of 5 waves, Wave 1 begins and drops about 275 pips. Wave 3 was actually shorter at 230 pips. The Wave 3 length bothered me but I just passed it off as one of those "oh well" things. We know we had Wave 4 pegged right during the sideways price action so the previous drop had to be Wave 3, shorter or not. That was a given. And our prediction on the bottom at 1.45 would have been perfect if it had been a standard Wave 5 length equal to Wave 1.
If we use the longest wave (Wave 1) as the base and knowing that Wave 5 extensions run at least 1.618 times as far, that gives us an expected Wave 5 length of about 450 pips. Wave 5 ran for just slightly over that at 470 pips.
If only we'd known, we could have just sat out and waited. We would have entered at the expected 450 pip range on Wave 5, give or take, and we would have been nothing but green right now dude.
We gotta get this stuff down pat. No wonder nobody can come up with an indicator that can find these patterns...too many rules...LOL!
Ok Git, here we go. I've studied my little brains out tonight and now my head hurts. I've been trying to figure out how we missed predicting where this thing would ultimately wind up.
We got an extended Wave 5. That much I know now but I needed to find out how we could have known that.
The answer was in the Elliott Wave book I just got in. If Waves 1 and 3 are almost equal in length, then watch out...you're setting up for a possible Wave 5 extension.
On EU's 4 hour chart, the consolidation triangle is evident at the top, which was the end of the big Wave 5 we'd been watching. After consolidation in a contracting Elliott triangle made up of 5 waves, Wave 1 begins and drops about 275 pips. Wave 3 was actually shorter at 230 pips. The Wave 3 length bothered me but I just passed it off as one of those "oh well" things. We know we had Wave 4 pegged right during the sideways price action so the previous drop had to be Wave 3, shorter or not. That was a given. And our prediction on the bottom at 1.45 would have been perfect if it had been a standard Wave 5 length equal to Wave 1.
If we use the longest wave (Wave 1) as the base and knowing that Wave 5 extensions run at least 1.618 times as far, that gives us an expected Wave 5 length of about 450 pips. Wave 5 ran for just slightly over that at 470 pips.
If only we'd known, we could have just sat out and waited. We would have entered at the expected 450 pip range on Wave 5, give or take, and we would have been nothing but green right now dude.
We gotta get this stuff down pat. No wonder nobody can come up with an indicator that can find these patterns...too many rules...LOL!
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