I think the community will see a 4 pt change as a break from SOC.
FWIW I think the odds of >4.0 are 30% (assuming any efficacy at all) at 6 months. >3.5 would seem like 70% odds. (And of course at 1 year >5 is probably 90% - again, assuming any efficacy at all). I.e. the Russian data is either totally good or totally unreliable IMO.