Nothing But Politics

[Rick Faurot]

Bush, Kerry in Reach of Electoral Win

But Neither Has Clear Advantage In Tossup States

By David S. Broder, Dan Balz and Charles Babington
Washington Post Staff Writers
Sunday, October 31, 2004; Page A01

President Bush and his Democratic challenger, Sen. John F. Kerry, go into the final 48 hours of the 2004 presidential campaign within easy reach of an electoral majority, but neither has a clear advantage in the remaining handful of tossup states.

This year's election is a virtual rerun of the 2000 race, with many of the same states in the too-close-to-call category. But four years ago, Bush's route to an electoral majority was clearer than Al Gore's, while this year his path appears no easier than Kerry's, given the states still in play.

Bush has solid leads in 23 states with 197 electoral votes and is favored in four more, which could bring him to 227. Kerry is equally solid in 13 states with 178 electoral votes and is favored in five states, which would bring him to 232. It takes 270 electoral votes to win.

Six states -- Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and New Mexico -- with 79 electoral votes could determine the winner. All are regarded as tossups by neutral observers and the two campaigns.