Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[otraque]

Curiousity and the Looongterm view: I am now looking at the Investor Intelligence Sentiment( via DecisionPoint Website) all the way back to and including 1988---16years, and this October has been easily the most bullish sentiment readings of ANY October in the past 16years.
Also when one looks at this 16 year chart one can see just with eyeballing it is obvious we have been overly bullish on average since November 1999, that those that argue that the market bullish mindset that erupted in November 1999 is still the prevailing and dominant mindset over these now almost 5 years.
Those that argue that last leg that breaks high bullish sentiment has not occurred in the past 5 years i believe are quite correct.
The overall pattern is showing there is strong feeling that we have just super clear sailing ahead in an established NEW SECULAR BULL.
This matches the view of those that believe the real breakdown into pessimism that occurs when a Bear Market is completing itself, has NOT happened.
On looking at chart from November 1999 i will say, the picture i see is wreckless abandon has been dominating these past 5 years, and in a way that can not be seen at all in any 5 year time frame over the past 16years.
Based on what i see i must maintain that at any time this market from now well into 2006 will go into a crushing sell-off---i am NOT saying when--yet:)
Corrected for inflation we will hit new 21st century lows in a conservatively stated 2 year time frame, and we have a quite solid chance of shattering the previous numeric 21st century lows within that same time frame.
Looking at this, and factoring all other data i am feeling very comfortable at building a short position in 2-1 ultrashort in NDX and am now looking to SPX.
This is be NOT views that be of any value to shorterm views---this is just the Big Picture view, IMHO.
Limtex will absolutely LOVE this post and i am sure he will concur completely(VBG:) Welles