The Dow just barely a week ago was at a yearly low, I don't think that was an assumption of a Bush win from the street.
Zeev. I don't think that either of us want to spend much time on this, because it is pretty subjective, but I don't look at the DOW much to read markets any more ... too many new companies in the DOW in recent years have made it much less meaningful. I use the NYSE Composite, and it shows a different picture.
Since the Democratic convention ended on July 29, and the Republican convention on September 2, the NYSE Composite is up fairly significantly.
While this doesn't show that a Bush victory is cooked-in, it certainly has rallied a lot since late July.