Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[jdaasoc]

RE DNA

earnings revision downwards at SG Cowan because drugs where so successful in outcome that they will erode future sales. Unreal.




Since its launch in February, Avastin has consistently exceeded Wall Street sales estimates for the drug, the first approved medicine that attacks tumors by cutting off their blood supply. Erbitux has also consistently beaten sales projections since its own late February launch.

The SG Cowen survey showed "for the first time since Avastin's launch, physicians reported declining use in refractory patients," Schmidt wrote.

While these surveys are not necessarily scientific, Schmidt said they have done fairly well in predicting sales trends.

"Investors have some confidence in these survey results," he said.

"They did accurately call a better-than-expected launch of both Erbitux and Avastin, and I think what we're seeing now is those drugs were so successful at penetrating their markets that potentially the sales levels seem to be flattening out sooner than expected," Schmidt said.