more on GTCB
In response to DEW's lengthy note explaining the current position of GTCB, I have a few things to add.
Disclosure, I am not quite as bold/foolish as DEW, but GTCB is my 2nd largest holding.
Selling ATryn should be quite profitable. The ATryn program is non-partnered, there are only modest IP royalties to be paid, and GTCB’s transgenics and protein-purification technology has been fine-tuned to the point where operating margins should be in the typical range for a biopharmaceutical.
This is true, but I believe the company has said publicly (and IR told me on the phone) that plan A is to partner ATryn and that this could be announced even before EMEA reaches a decision in early 2005. In fact, other than this, I don't see much that shareholders can hope for in terms of short term price support. If a partnership can not be arranged, then plan B would be to deal directly with European distributors and plan C would be to develop a small (half dozen?) sales force to market the drug. So, I expect Atryn to be partnered and this would be good---I don't want to see GTCB flounder trying to market a drug itself in Europe.
I’m sure you recognize that ATryn is only the tip of the iceberg for this company. GTCB is fundamentally a platform company; once the first transgenically-produced drug reaches market, it will open the door for others, perhaps many others, in both the EU and the U.S.
Well said!!!GTCB's potential value does not come from Atryn. Atryn is a niche blood protein that, if approved and proven commercially viable, will be a modest money maker. But, Atryn will mark a seachange in protein therapeutics. As such, I see Atryn as a figurative trial balloon. The real deals will follow rapidly if it does not burst.
Urche
