Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Narlaprevir paradox?

Could MRK be benefitting from using Pegintron rather than Pegasys in the phase-2 Narlaprevir program, despite the fact that Pegasys is the better drug? It’s possible, IMO.

If using Pegintron rather than Pegasys lowers the SVR rate in the SoC control arm to a greater degree than it lowers the SVR rate in the Narlaprevir + SoC arms, the SVR delta for the Narlaprevir arms goes up. Thus, MRK may have an incentive to use Pegintron in the phase-2 Narlaprevir trials—other than the obvious one of employing its own drug rather than a competitor’s. (Pegintron belongs to MRK as a result of the merger with SGP.)

If and when Narlaprevir gets to phase-3, I would expect MRK to switch to Pegasys.