well, an early morning debate is in order... agree that holding producers is certainly out of favor currently vs. the explorers and you are likely right from a short term/trading perspective.
but you cite $800 gold, can you imagine the financial distress to the world financial markets at that level, would imply a deriviative blow up or some other financial catastrophe... thus, would imagine it would be more difficult for junior explorers to raise cash to keep in business... for a junior to get into production would require much greater capex because of higher mine infrastructure cost, not to mention that mine financing may be completely unavailable in such an environment. thus, for longer term investments I much prefer the junior producers, already in production or will be in production within 2 years.
the market seems to like to especially whack near term producers (i.e. will go into production within 1 to 6 months), this makes me hesitant on holding AGI when the share price may well be lower just before production...
does your "no producer" philosophy include ARQ...? are you opposed to ARQ backing into a 20% interest in a producing mine via BEE at an attractive price...?
also, how about RNC? RNC is getting whacked now because its cash cost will be high this quarter (less production of ounces this quarter has caused cash cost per oz to rise to about $320, hopefully a near term problem that will be reversed this quarter and get their cash costs back under $250 again). But at $800 POG I would hardly care if their cash costs were $250 or $320... their profit margin would be just incredbile at $800 POG...
just some random musings, but IMO the junior producers are the better long term investments especially when you cite $800 POG....
AI
Market Data 
Markets 
