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Analysts Expect Strong Google Quarter
Monday October 18, 8:52 pm ET
By Lisa Baertlein


SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Analysts who follow Google Inc. (NasdaqNM:GOOG - News) expect the Web search leader to report strong gains in third-quarter revenue and earnings on Thursday when the notoriously tight-lipped company announces results for the first time as a public company.



Analysts have had to prepare their financial targets with little guidance from the company since even before Google's $1.67 billion initial offering in August, its founders told prospective shareholders that they would not issue forecasts.

"This is an exercise in guesstimation," said Standard & Poor's equity analyst Scott Kessler. "I feel like I'm in a very dark cave with a lot of other folks."

Kessler is forecasting gross revenue of $739 million -- including traffic acquisition costs, or fees Google pays its advertising partners.

Google's gross revenue was $393.9 million in the year-ago period and $700.2 million in the second quarter of 2004, according to a company filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Kessler also expects Google to post earnings of 23 cents per share, including costs associated with stock-based compensation but excluding an expected charge from a legal settlement with Yahoo Inc. (NasdaqNM:YHOO - News), its closest rival.

Lehman Brothers analyst Douglas Anmuth, said in a note on Monday that he is projecting net revenue of $448 million, excluding traffic acquisition costs.

Google's comparable second-quarter revenue, excluding $277 million in fees paid to advertising partners, was $423.2 million.

"We expect Google to report strong (third-quarter) results on the heels of continued secular growth in search and aggressive expansion of its affiliate network," he said.

Elsewhere, Caris & Co. Internet services analyst David Garrity said investors will be watching to see if there was a slowdown in search during the summer months of the third quarter -- something that was expected but did not materialize at Yahoo, which reported last week.

"The question is whether Google is able to realize similar benefits," Garrity said.

Lehman's Anmuth has a "neutral" rating on Google's shares, which closed up 3.5 percent to $149.16 on the Nasdaq. Google shares debuted at $85.

"We believe further share appreciation may be limited as Google's current valuation likely takes into account strong (third quarter) results and investors may turn their attention to the upcoming lock-up expirations," Anmuth said, referring in the latter case to concerns that employees may sell stock en masse when their post-IPO holding requirements lift.

Meanwhile, Garrity has an "above average" rating on Google shares. That rating signals the potential for upside appreciation of 5 percent to 20 percent over the next 12 months.