Hi FA, my understanding is that Oil supply is not a problem, capacity utilization and the games being played by the big oil conglomerates is... I believe oil will drop sometime after the election regardless of who gets into the white house.
The general market seems ripe for a correction, but again it is all about perception. My take is that the perception behind a Bush win is good for fossil fuel/energy, pharma and defense stocks to name a few. The perception behind a Kerry win is good for alternative fuels/energy, biotech and security stocks to name a few...
As for the dollar, I would not count it out yet. The Fed is determined to raise rates to 3.5% or 4.0%, an equilibrium of sorts in correlation to bond yields. Greenie does not see inflation or oil prices as unmanageable or a recession. These are his thoughts, not mine. This mind set and the raising of rates should strengthen the $USD or at least keep it from sinking much further. A weak dollar is OK, a decimated dollar is not.
Gold is a strange beast... With the unpredictability of oil and the dollar, no telling what gold will or will not do. I like the yellow stuff, but until it breaks the double top in the $430's I am staying away. Once that occurs, plenty of time to play the run up...
As a side note, I own some of the hard asset, but no stocks at this time. My faves are the Jr's, BGO, GSS and WHT...
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