SwingTrade Member Forum

[Wizard]

Of course I know exactly how a recession is defined. Two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP (or more). It's over when GDP rises. The last reported quarter was 2Q09 and it was a decline. The third quarter has not been reported yet. Consensus is for an increase of, what, like 2.4% or so for 3Q09? It hasn't been reported yet. I have no idea if the 2.4% is an accurate estimate. So it (the recession) aint over until the fat lady sings.

Usually the stock market starts to rise well before a recession is over - the market is a leading indicator. The job market lags.