Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: Does interferon have bright future in HCV?

No startling new data has happened.

Clinical data are not the only indicators of change in a fast-moving sector of the biotech universe such as HCV. You also need to look at where the major players are placing their chips.

Roche and now GILD are betting strongly on the all-oral paradigm, while Biolex and BMY are on the other side, betting on a continued role for interferon.

Roche’s bet is noteworthy insofar as Roche has the most to lose of any company from the curtailment of interferon use in HCV.

GILD’s bet is even more consequential, IMO: a) the decision is fresh; b) GILD is the world’s leading antiviral company and has rarely made a wrong bet in this field; and c) GILD’s immense cash flow would have allowed the company to advance GS9190 into phase-3 testing vs SoC with only a trivial impact on the company’s financial resources.

My money is aligned with Roche and GILD on this one.