Jon Markman who writes on msn mentions from time to time "Mr P", supposedly a smart guy at one of the hedge funds. I think, generally speaking, his forecasts were pretty good.
<Now Mr. P’s way-out-of-consensus belief is that the U.S. and global economies will slide into a pronounced recession in 2005 -- an event that will take stocks down 20% or more, boost bonds, spike the dollar and juice commodity prices. The plunge in stocks will end by the third quarter, he forecasts, followed by a rally that leaves prices modestly higher>