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Re: michalel97123 post# 6681

Tuesday, 07/23/2002 10:35:28 AM

Tuesday, July 23, 2002 10:35:28 AM

Post# of 704049
michalel97123: Further comments.

The problem is that many analysts see continued slide and wekaness in the US dollar rather than stabilization. Also, only the very large cap US firms benefit from dollar weakness reagrding increased attractiveness of their exports. This pales, in comparison, next to the billions of dollars Europeans are pulling from the US equities and, equally worrisome, the cessation of new foreign money coming into US markets.

Remember, the huge and ever-increasing US trade deficit and debt load has been funded by foreign dollars coming into the US equity market. This is now (and probably for the next several years) a thing of the past. The economists and ANALysts who claim that there is a "disconnect" between the health of the US economy and the stock market declines are way off base. The economy is NOT strong (read the link to Stephen Roach's comments in one of my earlier posts)and that is "the message of the market". What the market is saying, 6 months earlier than the actual realization, is that US economy has some major fundamental probems and weaknesses that have not been addressed and the forward earnings estimates for the S&P are way off base.

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