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[leemalone2k3]

XHB nov 16 calls have a 73.18% probability of touching and a 34.88% probability of expiring in the money. The 17 calls have a 36.85% probabiliry of touching and a 17.77% probability of expiring in the money. Given that you are paying about a .50 premium then you can look at the probabilities as following.For 16.45 breakeven you have approximately 54% probability of touching and a 27% probability of expiring ITM.

With a delta of 40, you wll make about .65 to .70 on the trade if it hits 17.00. That is a good return. Now if it blasts through 17, you will make alot more. However if 17 is your target, I would consider selling the Nov 15/16 Put spread for .52 verses buying the 16 calls straight up. This makes your breakeven at 15.48 and the ETF only has to move up .63 to keep the full .52 premium instead of moving up 1.13 to make the same on the calls.

Just an observation.