Biotech Values

[turtlepower]

ARYX -

never any shame in taking some good profits

You guessed it.

If you are reasonably confident a significant deal is going to get done for budiodarone at some point, whether that be in one month or by 1Q10, then why sell now? The stock still looks pretty cheap to me at this point even after the nice rebound after the tecarfarin debacle as it's still at a sub-$100 million market cap.

I guess part of the problem is I'm no longer 100% convinced that a deal would happen and I'm concerned about the reaction to the share price if ARYX uses the financing facility. I've already made a tidy bit and I still hold a pretty significant amount of shares (significant for me). I think aryx is probably fairly valued right now. CRME has almost 4 times the marketcap but it has the IV formulation with proven efficacy (even though its far from being approved), a partner and a lot more cash. I think the downside is less for ARYX compared to the upside but I think I have enough shares to enjoy whatever the upside may be and there are a few short term plays that I want to try out. If I get lucky, the short term plays work and I still get back into ARYX before a deal.