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Re: scottgjohnson post# 107393

Friday, 10/09/2009 4:50:16 PM

Friday, October 09, 2009 4:50:16 PM

Post# of 749756
The difference Between WAMU stocks.

Your question bothered me since it made me think, heh but I found out the answer to your question.

First of all the amount paid depends on the settlement but here is my math. (Statistics borrowed from the Fission and CNBC)

WAMPQ - 1000$ face value / 3 Million outstanding / Trading at 25$
WAHUQ - 50$ Face value / 23 Million outstanding / Trading at 7.75
WAMKQ - 25$ face value / 20 million outstanding / Trading at .76$
WAMUQ - ?$ face value / 1.7 Billion oustanding / trading at .232

This is the order the settlement money will go to.

8 Billion liabilities
1.15 Billion to WAHUQ
3.5 Billion to WAMKQ and WAMPQ (Both Same class)
Left overs to WAMUQ, Fission thinks 40 Billion will go to commons but no one knows for sure.

Upsides for each stock varies but WAHUQ is the safest class with WAMKQ and WAMPQ tied and WAMUQ being the most risky.

Potential upsides:
WAMPQ: 40x
WAHUQ: 6.45x
WAMKQ: 30.26x

Then you got WAMUQ which is varible

<13 Billion WAMUQ = 0$
26 Billion WAMUQ = 7.64 / x32.93
52 Billion WAMUQ = 22.94 / x98.8
65 Billion WAMUQ = 30.59 / x131.85
78 Billion WAMUQ = 38.23 / x164.8

As you can see the profit of WAMUQ is unknown but definitely has the highest potential upside. I think it's extremely unlikely that if they win they won't get the 26 Billion so we should be about as safe as the other stocks with a much higher upside potential.










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