Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

MNTA:

Does the fact that sanofi announced its generics sub will produce a Plavix authorized generic (and will sell other generics "when appropriate") change your assessment of MNTA's potential value?

No, this announcement does not change anything in my valuation analysis. Two points:

1. Unlike Lovenox, Plavix is an ordinary small-molecule drug that is trivial to characterize and produce. After the Hatch-Waxman 180-day exclusivity period expires, there will be a zillion Plavix generics on the US market. Thus, the economics of the market for Plavix will be completely different from the economics of the market for Lovenox in the case where there’s a single non-AG generic.

2. The Lovenox NPV arithmetic for the single-generic case in #msg-42166244 already takes into account the effect of an AG launch by Sanofi; it does this by applying a 40% haircut to the best-case scenario in order to arrive at the lower bound of the NPV range.

Regards, Dew