Foreign Correspondence

[Amaunet]

WARLORDS THREATEN TO WRECK DEMOCRATIZATION PROCESS IN AFGHANISTAN


During the first presidential debate Bush sited a somewhat different picture of the pending Afghan election. And the Taliban are no longer in power. Ten million people have registered to vote in Afghanistan in the upcoming presidential election.
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What he did not mention was that the Taliban were busily intimidating would-be voters, the number registered already exceeds the estimated total of eligible voters for the whole country and warlordism poses an even greater threat to Afghanistan’s stabilization efforts than does the Taliban insurgency.
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-Am

Daan van der Schriek 10/05/04



In July, Afghan President Hamid Karzai ditched his vice-president, Marshal Mohammad Fahim, one of the country’s most powerful warlords. In September, Karzai sacked Ismail Khan – another influential warlord – as the governor of Herat. The moves were designed to expand the influence of Afghanistan’s central government. Yet, both have failed to produce the desired effect. With Afghanistan’s presidential election just days away, warlords remain in position to adversely influence the country’s political future.

Karzai appears headed for victory in the October 9 presidential vote. But given the fact that Karzai’s administration exerts little authority beyond Kabul, some observers are warning the election could mark what the group Human Rights Watch (HRW) characterizes as a "hollow victory" for Afghanistan’s democratization process.

To a large extent the warlord threat to Afghan’s elections – both the presidential vote and the parliamentary ballot scheduled for 2005 – has been overshadowed by the ongoing Taliban insurgency. Taliban raids have intensified in the weeks leading up to the presidential vote. On October 4, for example, seven Taliban militants were killed in a clash with government security forces.

Taliban violence has kept the presidential campaigning limited mainly to Kabul, although Karzai ventured from the capital on October 5 for an appearance in the eastern city of Ghanzi. Amid heavy security, about 10,000 Afghans attended Karzai’s rally in Ghanzi – marking the president’s first campaign appearance outside of Kabul.

The Taliban insurgency represents the main security threat in southern and southeastern Afghan provinces. In rural areas of those regions, Taliban loyalists have sought to coerce residents into staying away from the polls. "In the central parts of Kandahar, Uruzgan [and] Zabul, where the government is in control, if a person doesn’t register for the election, he will be fined 500 afghanis [$11]. But in some parts outside government control, some people were beheaded by the Taliban because they had voter cards for the election," one Kandahari resident told the local Kabul Weekly.

Warlords and their militias, operating largely beyond the control of Kabul, wield the most influence in northern Afghanistan, political analysts say. "Many voters in rural areas say the militias have already told them how to vote, and that they’re afraid of disobeying them. Activists and political organizers who oppose the warlords fear for their lives," said Brad Adams, HRW’s Asia director.

A HRW report, titled "The Rule of the Gun: Human Rights Abuses and Political Repression in the Run-up to Afghanistan’s Presidential Election, suggests that warlordism poses an even greater threat to Afghanistan’s stabilization efforts than does the Taliban insurgency. "Political repression by local strongmen is the principle problem," the report stated. "Throughout the country, militarized political factions—militias and remnants of past Afghan military forces who came into power in the wake of the Taliban’s [late 2001] defeat, continue to cement their hold on political power at the local level, using force, threats and corruption to stifle more legitimate political activity."

Political observers say Karzai’s tentative approach on the warlord issue has exacerbated the problem. In an address to the United Nations on September 22, Karzai identified Taliban-inspired terrorism and drug trafficking as the main threats to Afghan stabilization efforts. Karzai’s omission of warlords as a security danger underscores the perception among analysts that his administration has not come to grips with the problem.

"Karzai did not make ‘warlordism’ an issue until accessing the non-Pashtun vote became an issue," said Jennifer Harbison, south Asia analyst with the London-based Control Risks Group.

"The reality is that most Afghans involved in politics on the ground are primarily afraid of warlords and their factions, much more than they’re afraid of the Taliban," Adams maintained.

Even then, Karzai’s major moves to curb warlordism – the dismissals of Fahim and Khan – have been undercut by personnel moves that appear to have rewarded other warlords. In July, Gen. Khan Mohammad, a commander in Kandahar, and Gen. Hazrat Ali, a warlord in eastern Nangarhar, were made police chiefs of their respective provinces. In the same month, Gen. Atta Mohammad was named governor of northern Balkh Province. Atta is a prominent rival of another local strongman, Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, who is one of Karzai’s most notorious opponents.

"President Karzai is attempting to sideline abusive commanders, but often blanches on the job, believing that he can weaken warlords by making deals with them—a strategy which has failed in most areas," the HRW report said.

The HRW report harshly criticized international efforts to aid the election process, suggesting that those nations, including the United States, that have expressed a desire to promote democratization in Afghanistan, are now mired in a state of complacency. "Many falsely assume that democracy [in Afghanistan] is now on the horizon," the report said. "Little progress has been made in laying the foundation for a functioning democratic state."

It went on to assail NATO states for not making a sufficient number of troops available to project stability in most Afghan provinces during the run-up to the elections. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. It added that the US military has undermined efforts to curb warlord influence by utilizing their militias as mercenary forces in the fight against the Taliban.

"Amazingly because of the because of the inadequate provision of international forces, current security plans for the presidential election include the use of deputized warlord or factional forces to guard polling stations—the very people Afghans say they are most afraid of," the report said.

International leaders, including US President George W. Bush, have hailed the fact that over 10 million Afghans have registered to vote in the upcoming elections. Many experts in Kabul believe existing voter registration figures to be exaggerated, however, primarily to "multiple registration by voters," the HRW report said. Due in large part to the fear generated by both the Taliban and warlords, actual voter participation on October 9 could be as low as 5 million, several Afghan officials told HRW.

The true extent of warlord influence over Afghanistan’s political process may not be seen until the parliamentary and local elections in 2005, when warlord factions are expected to use all means at their disposal, including bribery and violence, to bolster vote totals for their preferred candidates.

"Credible elections are seen by many Afghans as the as the way to transform the country from a loose set of warlord-led fiefdoms into a functioning nation,’ the HRW report said. "The question is whether the presidential election in 2004 (and local and parliamentary elections in 2005) will move the country towards that goal?"

The HRW report insists the answer to that question is no. "Most signs suggest that warlordism and factional dominance will only increase," the report said.


Editor’s Note: Daan van der Schriek is a freelance journalist based in Kabul.

Posted October 5, 2004 © Eurasianet
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