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Coalition of willing about to implode

Henry Hilton

October 4, 2004

The first Bush-Kerry presidential debate has highlighted the glaring differences on how best to treat America's allies. The rival candidates can be expected to continue to slug away until polling day on "who has the credibility to bring the allies back to the table."

In the ongoing chaos that is occupied Iraq, President George Bush paid tribute to those friendly nations who have stayed the course, signalling out Britain's Tony Blair for particular praise. Sen John Kerry stressed instead the need for a better set of arrangements whereby traditional alliance structures would once again be firm.

Under the Democrats it appears that Bush's alleged unilateralism would be thrown out of the window. The familiar Cold War tradition of regular and cordial prime ministerial visits by European and Asian friends to the White House might then be on its way back.

What neither of the contenders has said, though, is that the old game is nearly up. The days of the coalition of the willing are rapidly ending. It is becoming an odds-on bet that regardless of who wins the Nov 2 election, the short unhappy era of the "B-B-H-K" axis is almost over. Chances are that Messrs Blair, Howard and Koizumi are secretly ticking off the days on the calendar until they can reckon on their respective exit strategies.

Each coalition leader must now face the music and for Prime Minister John Howard of Australia, his date with destiny comes up very shortly indeed (Oct 9). After receiving a battering in the first televised debate with his younger Labour Party opponent John Latham, Howard has yet to persuade the Australian electorate that his decision to go all the way with George W was in the national interest. The polls are far from encouraging and Howard has yet to pull a decent-sized rabbit out of the hat to get the result he craves to return him to office for a third term. If he fails, there can be little doubt that the short, four letter word "Iraq" is going to be found engraved on his heart.

Blair has also got more than his fair share of headaches right now. It's been a confusing week for his supporters as the prime minister entered hospital for a mini-operation, bought himself a hugely expensive retirement home in central London, rumored to be mortgaged against his yet to be written memoirs, and vowed to keep on leading the Labour Party for years to come.

What is clear, though, is that Blair's policies over Iraq remain highly unpopular with the electorate and that noises off stage are whispering that the man should go and go soon. For the present, Blair is still running the show but his recent half-apology for getting the wrong intelligence information prior to going to war to oust Saddam Hussein suggests at the very least that he will find it hard to escape his past. Once a senior politician has to admit to his own party faithful that the issue of the Iraq war "has divided the country" and that "I entirely understand why many disagree," then he begins to look mighty vulnerable.

The same is less true of Koizumi, but he too will be hoping that regardless of whoever wins the general election in the United States, there will be a change of strategy. The recent Bush-Kerry presidential debate circled around this theme without either candidate daring to talk of cutting and running. Yet the fact that Bush is trusting the interim Iraqi government to have a force of over 125,000 trained personnel on the streets shortly implies that overall responsibility for security may pass rather quickly from American to Iraqi hands.

This would provide the ideal opportunity for Koizumi to say that he had done all he could to help Uncle Sam and that now was the time for the SDF troops to quit southern Iraq. The Japanese public would then shed tears of relief, while expenditure on Iraqi reconstruction might be rapidly scaled back and international relations commentators could record that Japan had reached yet another milestone on its journey back to becoming a "normal" nation.

Almost regardless of the outcome of Nov 2, it is now almost impossible to envisage any fresh talk of an allied coalition marching to Washington's drum. The "B-B-H-K" axis will soon be history.

Copyright ©2004 Japan Today

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