The 4 Billion will be decided on before your eating that Thanksgiving Turkey imo. The hearing will be in October, and the decision must be made by 11/25. I'm sure Walrath will make it sooner than that.
My bet is once we have that, Weil will calcutate a new A/L including tax returns, and potential assets showing that A far exceeds L... Then you will see the stocks really move. I also think this is when Weil will drop the Discovery nuke big time.
Weil and Quinn have a master plan here - it's to get fair value out of JPM. Simple as that. It may take months or years, but I have no doubt it will happen.